PS3 on life support?

It seems that consumers really, really don't want to buy the PS3. So why is Sony bothering trying to sell it? Or better yet, why are publishers still developing for the platform?

Digital Battle reported that a recent price cut caused a spike in PS2 sales in April in the US, selling 172k units. With that, it actually outsold the PS3 which only sold 127k units. Can you believe that this is a mere two months after Killzone 2 was released? Sony's "definitive Halo killer" has sold 1.6 million units but apparently very few people bought a PS3 for the game.

The rumored price cut for the PS3 this coming fall might help to boost Sony's sales, but one has to wonder if it is not already too late. Just the other day I was wondering if the 'installed base' of the PS3 is big enough for game publishers to actually earn back their investments. While huge franchises such as Metal Gear will reach many homes, the numbers don't add up for those who do not have the same following. We all know that the PS3 is one of the most difficult machines to develop games for, and as such it will also be the most expensive. How many copies does a game need to sell before it recoups its money? I don't know, but I'm willing to bet that any game that sells under 200k will surely make a loss and that big budget games such as Killzone 2 and Resistance 2 will need a lot more than that to break even.

If we take a look at which games sold best during last year's holiday season, it is easy to see the trouble that Sony is in. Not counting Wii Sports (it is 'sold' with every Wii), worldwide sales figures for the top games in December look something like this:

Nintendo Wii

• Wii Play - 2.7 million (lifetime: 20 million)


• Mario Kart Wii - 2.7 million (lifetime 13 million)


• Wii Fit - 2.4 million (lifetime 13 million)


• Animal Crossing: City Folk - 1.5k (lifetime 2.3 million)


• Guitar Hero: World Tour - 1.1 million (lifetime 2 million)

Microsoft XBOX 360

• Call of Duty: World at War - 1.8 million (lifetime 4.1 million)


• Lego Indiana Jones: The Original Adventures - 1.3 million (lifetime 2.6 million)


• Kung Fu Panda - 1.3 million (lifetime 2.2 million)


• Gears of War 2 - 1.1 million (lifetime 4.1 million)


• Sega Superstars Tennis - 850k (lifetime 1.6 million)

Sony Playstation 3

• Call of Duty: World at War - 1 million (lifetime 2.4 million)


• LittleBigPlanet - 750k (lifetime 1.7 million)


• Resistance 2 - 600k (lifetime 1.2 million)


• Need for Speed: Undercover - 550k (lifetime 900k)


• Prince of Persia - 500k (lifetime 500k)

(lifetime = total units sold up until December 2008)

It doesn't take a genius to figure out that if you are developing a game, you better do so for the Wii or even for Microsoft's X360. The slowest selling top 5 game on the X360 sold almost as much as the hottest PS3 game in December. Looking at the total number of games sold we see 17 million PS3 games against 27million for the X360 and 43 million for the Wii. In other words: As a publisher you are 2.5 times as likely to sell your game on the Wii than you are on the PS3.

With rates as these, it is only a matter of time before big Playstation franchises will start appearing on other consoles, most likely the X360. When that happens, Sony will be effectively be shoved in the 'forgotten box' for this generation.

To be honest, if something doesn't happen soon, I wouldn't be surprised if the PS3 will start losing publisher support after this coming holiday season. In the end, publishers want to be paid for their investments, they're not about keeping Sony on life support indefinitely.